With the start of the fall film festivals, awards season is officially upon us! For someone like me, who gleefully obsesses over correctly predicting the outcomes of the Oscars every year (I was 16 for 24 last year, I can do better), this means initiating the first step: correctly predicting the nominations. It’s important to keep in mind that it is still very early. We still have five months to go until the actual ceremony, and three months of qualifying film releases left in 2019. So what, you might be wondering, are these predictions even based on? The answer is three things: “Buzz” (whatever the hell that means), gut feeling, and blind guessing. I’m going to be posting an updated version of this list once a month between now and when the nominations are announced on a January 13th, 2020 live broadcast. A LOT can change between now and then, with under-the-radar releases surprising everyone, box office troubles or triumphs, and most importantly, what happens at the many awards ceremonies that are seen as Oscar success precursors (SAG, WGA, PGA, DGA, etc.).
This list was very hard to narrow down. When I began I had 22 films listed under Best Picture, and a minimum of 15 under each of the acting categories. But this list isn’t about listing every single possible contender in each of the categories, it’s about attempting to accurately pick what the nominees will actually be, so some difficult decisions had to be made. I was also thrown a few curveballs here and there, like discovering through some research that it looks like Tom Hanks might be competing in Supporting Actor instead of Lead for A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood (which seems ridiculous), but in these instances I placed them where it seems most likely that their names will be submitted, not where I think they should be. Also worthy of mention I think, is that this is not the list as I think it should look like (I certainly hope Gerwig and Heller get Director nods), this is simply my best prediction of what the nominations will be. As time goes on I’ll be adding the rest of the categories, probably starting with Cinematography, Editing, and Score. But for now, here’s the list:
Scott’s 2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September 1st, 2019)
Picture
- 1917
- Ford v. Ferrari
- A Hidden Life
- The Irishman
- Just Mercy
- Little Women
- Marriage Story
- Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
- Parasite
- Waves
Director
- Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
- Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite)
- Trey Edward Schults (Waves)
- Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
- Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon A Time In Hollywood)
Actress
- Awkwafina (The Farewell)
- Cynthia Evrio (Harriet)
- Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
- Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
- Jodie Turner-Smith (Queen & Slim)
Supporting Actress
- Annette Bening (The Report)
- Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
- Brie Larson (Just Mercy)
- Margot Robbie (Once Upon A Time In Hollywood)
- Meryl Streep (The Laundromat)
Actor
- Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon A Time In Hollywood)
- Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
- Kelvin Harrison Jr. (Waves)
- Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy)
Supporting Actor
- Alan Alda (Marriage Story)
- Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse)
- Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
- Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood)
- Brad Pitt (Once Upon A Time In Hollywood)
Adapted Screenplay
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Just Mercy
- The Laundromat
- Little Women
Original Screenplay
- The Farewell
- Marriage Story
- Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
- Parasite
- Queen & Slim
Alert The Audience 